As I write about science, how it’s understood and its
impact, I often get caught in the weeds of one issue or another…but the more I
look at this, the more I’ve come to believe that we all need to back away a
bit, and look at science as a meta issue (not really sure what that means, but
it sounds good). And frankly, this will
be lost on most of you reading this because you’ve already solidified your
views on both the meaning and implications of science. So that’s why I’m focusing on our kids…here
are Uncle Alex’s 6 rules to know about science…you are not allowed to play
science before you commit these to memory.
1. Improperly using words that start with “C”
can get you into trouble
I’m speaking of course about causation, correlation and
certainty. Causation is something that
happens because of something else, and correlation is something that happens
next to something else. The significance
of the distinction is if you know what causes something else, you can change
the outcome, like when we understand what causes diseases; But if it only
correlates to something, not so much.
Pretty straight forward on the face of it, but the misunderstanding of
the distinction between the two, and the nominal desire for certainty leads to
endless endlessness. A great example is
the claim, “smoking causes cancer”.
Well, yes it does, but darn, not always.
So is less than 100% causation only a correlation…again, not
really. It’s those pesky variables such
as genetics, amount and length of smoking, etc…Further, to figure out when
something is causation or correlation does not follow a simple black and white
rule. Therefore, we need to look at the
bigger picture…here for instance we have decided that smoking causes cancer and
other health effects sufficiently to warrant social and political action to try
to limit smoking, which is bad for people, bad for health care costs, etc. So as individuals and as a society we have an
interest in accepting the results of the science, even though it is not
absolute and determinative. My dear old
grandmother smoked filter less Pall Malls until she was 86, but that does not
justify changing efforts to reduce smoking.
As for certainty, well science simply can’t provide it. In
fact, rather than seeking certainty, science seeks to constantly test and
question previous assumptions of fact.
And while we think we desire certainty, we really don’t need it in
nearly all cases…this tends to really bum people out sometimes.
2. All science is not the same, nor are all
scientists
This is a two parter that leads to lots of confusion when
trying to figure out what to believe.
Part one is about science itself.
We hear daily about this study or that which seems to conflict with
other previous studies. How could this
be? Lots of reasons…the variables or testing conditions were slightly
different, inadequate sampling methods, spurious data, miss calibrated
instruments, stoned grad students…and the list goes on. The point is this is tricky stuff and we
should never read all results as equal. And
this is even more the case when the word “social” precedes science. The second part goes to the scientists
themselves. Frankly, just because someone
has a PhD in a discipline does not mean they are able or qualified to opine on
topics outside their very narrow expertise.
Nor does a graduate degree confer objectivity, lack of bias, or
ideological purity. Heck, they may not
even be decent scientists, so be careful kids.
3. It’s impossible to prove that something
won’t happen
This one is closely linked to the fact that science can
never provide absolute certainty. In a
nutshell, while science is excellent (but not perfect) at predicting what will
happen, it is unable to prove something will not happen. For example, science cannot prove that
something cannot harm you, it can only predict that it might…This one is a bit
of a mind bender, but always be suspicious when folks demand proof that
something is safe…that proof cannot be supplied by science, period.
4. The “Ant Colony Problem”
Science is by its nature reductionist, taking various
elements of complex systems and testing hypotheses about them piece by piece…however,
this may or may not tell us meaningful things about the systems as a whole. My favorite example of this is ant
colonies. The fundamental unit of the
colony is the ant. However, no matter
how much we study any individual ant, how much science we throw at it, it will
never be able to tell us how the colonies function as a whole. Therefore, we need to be really careful about
taking narrow results and using them to explain complex systems.
5. Science on the way to or from church
Science is not the opposite of faith, religion, spirituality
or whatever term your parents are comfortable using. However, a key conflict between the two does
exist. While science can never proclaim
certainty, faith often does. Therefore,
scientific thinking can be perceived as threatening simply because it requires
an openness to revise thinking base on new data and experimental outcomes, as
opposed to faith, which is often held has certain, absolute and immutable. So it’s not that science provides alternate
answers, but rather that any answer must remain open to further examination and
revision.
Science is glorious, and helps us understand the world and
our place in it. But it will never
provide all the answers, only more data from which we are challenged to arrive
at broader conclusions and which will always require further research.
6. …and just to mess with your young minds
There are many unknown things… there may be unknowable
things…it is unknown whether there are unknowable things. (Credit to my good friend Leonard Tramiel for
this one…not sure if he made it up, or like me, stole it)
Now go out and goof off….you’ll probably learn something
important in doing so.
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Link for earlier blogs on ...the Science...well sort of: http://www.chabotspace.org/open-science.htm
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Link for earlier blogs on ...the Science...well sort of: http://www.chabotspace.org/open-science.htm
